a hearty halloween

I'll be celebrating today's holiday with a 'bou, specifically the one I shot a few weeks ago up on the North Slope. 'Bou stew for lunch, 'bou steaks in the freezer, 'bou burger waiting to get ground up . . .
In the news today, there's still chatter about the White House editing testimony from the CDC on public health and climate change. Here's an AP story and a Boston Globe editorial, along with a take from Rolling Stone (one inconvenient truth: "Global warming might kill grandpa").
The U.S. House's Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming is holding a hearing tomorrow on the link between climate change and forest fires. An increase in fires -- at least in the Arctic -- has been projected for years. The notice for the hearing notes the big fires in California, which are consistent with climate projections, according to some. (I understand there's some debate over this.)
Also, the NY Times' Andy Revkin, my old prof in journalism school, has started a blog on climate. It's called Dot Earth.

cap and trade

The Western Climate Initiative is hosting a teleconference tomorrow to fill people in on its work plan and take public comments. The group was started in February by the governors of WA, OR, CA, AZ and NM as a way to collectively commit to emissions reductions. UT, BC, and Manitoba have since joined. Alaska is officially observing.
The group announced a collective goal in August to reduce emissions to 15 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. It's since developed a work plan that's 30 pages long and not exactly exciting, which is the subject of tomorrow's talk. "Interested stakeholders" can call in. Here's the link.
And here's a story I did back in July.

stepping it up at the last minute

Surely in response to my post, Sitka and Fairbanks have joined Anchorage and Homer in hosting Step It Up events this Saturday.
The event in Fairbanks is scheduled for 11am at Golden Heart Plaza and will be rather informal. (The host is this polar bear.)
Check the calendar for other stuff this week and next.

ak in the news, and how the heck...?

So I've been nibbling away at a story on Syun Akasofu and his well-received efforts to get people to chill over climate change. His public presentation is remarkably simple. He basically claims that climate modelers have figured out the relative effect of greenhouse gases by dividing the observed temperature change by the known increase in gases -- that a certain jump in ppm of CO2 has led to an increase of about 1 degree in 100 years. He argues they ignore what Earth was doing without the greenhouse gases, and concludes most of the warming came from those natural causes, based on simply extending the trajectory of natural warming leading into the industrial age.
Naturally, it made me wonder how modelers know how much a certain increase in CO2 will increase the temperature. The Christian Science Monitor had a story recently that at least gives an overview. One thing they don't mention is that the details of the warming also suggest anthropogenic causes rather than natural ones (that's my understanding, anyway). For example, it's warming faster in the winter than the summer, and faster at night than during the day.
The Anchorage Daily News had stories on Anchorage's efforts to go green, and Alyeska (the ski resort, not the pipeline company) buying green tags for its tram. (There's mention of offsetting 100 kw hours with wind power for 2 bucks, which would mean 2 cents a kw hour difference in price between coal or gas and wind -- sounds fishy to me, unless wind is getting cheap. I guess it's not from Alaska, but that's OK, it's global warming.)
Doug O'Harra describes how the lack of sea ice proved a boon for the owner of the Red Dog Mine by Kotzebue, which has to ship all its ore during the ice-free season.
And Alaska makes the grade when it comes to beautiful pics of species reportedly threatened by climate change, joining Australia and Bangladesh. Alaska, where new species are still being discovered...
Oh, and there's this story from the Washington Post, which also features Alaska. Reading it is a bit like opening a full closet and having all kinds of stuff fall out. The story is part of a bigger series.

ak in the news

Superstar Katey Walter, UAF student, IPY fellow, and now prof, was in the news again last week for getting an article published in Science. She and her co-authors propose that methane released from thawing lakes contributed a third to almost all of the increase in atmospheric methane during the past warm, interglacial period, and could have a big warming impact again.
Here's the Science abstract, and here's the story my paper did.
Walter was also featured last month by NPR.
In other news, NPR has a bit of a primer on the most important greenhouse gas, water vapor. And Doug O'Harra of Far North Science has a good explainer on this year's disappearing sea ice.

big day in Fairbanks

Gov. Palin's sub-cabinet is holding its next meeting in Fairbanks on Nov. 6. The agenda is packed.
A good chunk of the meeting will be open to the public, and the first thing on the agenda is a public comment period. After that, they'll get quick overviews from UAF researchers Terry Chapin and David Atkinson on adaptation and coastal erosion, respectively. Buck Sharpton, the UAF vice chancellor for research, who's also on the sub-cabinet, will talk about digital mapping (I think to scale down climate models to make them more useful here). There's also a pitch by CCS, the company that's helping the state inventory emissions, for how it might help the sub-cabinet.
A second chunk of the meeting is closed to the public, and has some exciting stuff, like figuring out how much money the state should ask for next year to develop a strategy.
The sub-cabinet's working group on immediate action is also meeting that day in Fairbanks, starting at noon at the Regency Hotel, and that meeting is open to the public. Fairbanks' own Luke Hopkins is on there. One interesting tidbit is that Peter Larsen is scheduled to talk on the "foreseeable economic impacts" of climate change. He was the lead author for ISER's study on potential costs to state infrastructure -- the only such study out there, as far as I know -- but he now works for the Nature Conservancy as their climate change point person in Alaska. Not sure what capacity he's speaking in, or whether being a green will harm his credibility.
Click here for more on the two meetings.

step it up, again

Remember in April when thousands of people held climate change (or anti-climate change) rallies around the US? Well, it's happening again, under the name Step It Up 2.In April, I wrote a bit about the one down in Juneau, which I didn't actually attend (I think I was snowboarding). There were 15 events in Alaska then, and only two scheduled for the second take, which is next Saturday. They're in Anchorage and Homer, two cities where the local government has been quite active on climate stuff. The guy who brainstormed the whole thing, Bill McKibben, wrote The End of Nature (in 1989), which argues that man-made climate change has caused the end of any true nature because now there's really NO place in the world that's not touched in some way by man. Maybe it's elitist, but that's a pretty strong regret for someone like me who's not living in sinking Tuvalu or depending on sea ice for sustenance. The book was so depressing his friends convinced him to follow it up with something more hopeful, which he called Hope, Human and Wild.

ak in the news, and polar bears

Sorry, I dropped the ball a bit for an exciting weekend away involving a truck, a 400-mile dirt highway, and big herds of caribou.
Here's some news clippings.
The News-Miner's RA Dillon wrote an update of climate legislation in DC.
The Arctic Sounder had a story on coastal erosion (and some amazing pictures of the whales caught this fall).
And Rachel D'Oro's story on walruses (walri?) showed up in the Sydney Morning Herald.
The big news today is from Gov. Palin, who's still urging the feds not to list polar bears as threatened under the Endangered Species Act despite recent USGS estimates that shrinking sea ice could do in two thirds of the world's polar bears in 50 years.
In a letter sent Monday to Interior Secretary Kempthorne, Palin wrote there wasn't enough evidence showing that the polar bear would be endangered "throughout all or significant portions of its range within the the foreseeable future," or showing that the bear populations weren't being well-managed already.
She didn't mention impacts on resource development, but argued the "listing of a currently healthy species based entirely on highly speculative and uncertain climate and ice modeling and equally uncertain and speculative modeling of possible impacts on a species would be unprecedented." The floodgates would be open to thousands of listing petitions, she wrote.
Palin said the state shared the feds' concern over the bears, and she asked for an extended comment period to sort things out.
This is a complicated topic. I wrote about it back in early April and again in mid April. Dan Joling did a story in late April.
Here's one summary.

whence the money?

The ADN's Beth Bragg had a good story today on the costs and issues association with coastal erosion and village relocation.

Where will all the money come from?

"That's the million-dollar question," said Sally Russell Cox, a state planner who is involved in the Newtok relocation.

It's closer to a billion-dollar question, and it's getting a lot of attention at the federal, state and local levels.

The usual sources are being tapped, among them the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the state Department of Transportation, the Village Safe Water Program and the Bureau of Indian Affairs. Even the idea of using some of the Permanent Fund has been floated.

Cox hopes dollars alone don't drive the discussions.

"I hate to put things in economic terms, because these are human beings we're talking about," she said. "These are lifestyles they've led for thousands of years that have been passed on to them by their forefathers. How can you minimize all that (by putting it) in economic terms?"

In years past, Natives would have moved to safer places if nature's wrath threatened their homes. Today, things like school buildings, airstrips, roads and washeterias keep once-nomadic people anchored in place.

Click here for the whole story.
Rachel D'Oro did a profile yesterday of Stanley Tom, the administrator of Newtok and one of the people dealing with erosion.

stevens and landrieu

Here are audio files from last Thursday's hearing in Anchorage of the Senate's Subcommittee on Disaster Recovery. Sen. Ted Stevens was there, along with the subcommittee's chair, Sen. Mary Landrieu. It's the meeting where Stevens acted like a coastal storm, according to the ADN.
The first is panel one. The second is panel two plus a news conference.
Enjoy.
Http://Stevens.senate.gov/misc/erosion1.mp3
Http://Stevens.senate.gov/misc/erosion2.mp3

Mr. Milkowski, get your Facts STRAIGHT!

The Anchorage Daily News picked up the story I did about the state climate change hearing and put it on their Web site. They have a deal where readers can weigh in, and the title here comes from someone who did.
Here's what happened. The engineer I wrote about, Dennis Nottingham, made strong accusations about what he said were failed erosion control projects in a few Alaska villages. Good reporting dictates that we check the facts -- even if someone else's name is on them -- and give anyone accused of something a chance to respond. I did neither of these because Nottingham's comments seemed most like opinions, which we don't check. In retrospect, I probably should have. A few people from Unalakleet challenged Nottingham's assertion.
The mini-blog gets into a critical discussion, but its tone is bad.

gore v. akasofu

Right, so Al Gore won a Nobel Peace Prize yesterday for his climate crusading. I spent part of the morning with Syun-Ichi Akasofu, who until this year led the fancy new International Arctic Research Center on the University of Alaska Fairbanks campus. His field of study is the northern lights, but lately he's been looking into climate change, and has been widely spreading his belief that it really isn't caused by human activities -- mostly -- and that there's nothing we can or should do about it other than adapt.
Thursday he talked to a group of UAF students; Friday morning he met with a group of local miners.
He ripped on the IPCC and its findings, and took a few jabs at Gore, basically for promoting bad science.
He's a very small man, and very polite, and also very witty, so when he sent me an e-mail later in the day, I'm pretty sure he meant it tongue-in-cheek. He had no problem with Gore winning the peace prize, he wrote, as long as it's not a science prize. More on him later.

the biggest of the small

Fairbanks doesn't really have mountains like some parts of the state (think Juneau), but it does have hills, and today I rode the biggest of them, Murphy Dome. It was overcast, about 32 degrees, and fairly breezy, which is to say it could be one of the last nice, warm fall days here. Our summer was beautiful (I wrote a story about it), but it left in a hurry. As a fellow reporter said, it left without giving us a chance to say goodbye. Daylight is disappearing, too, at the rate of nearly an hour a week. I had an early meeting Friday, and when I got out at 9, the sun was just coming up and it was 11 degrees. So today seemed nice.
The ride was about 2300 vertical feet on a rocky dirt road covered with increasing amounts of snow. The top is right at treeline, and today the wind was howling and it was quite a bit colder. Coming down into a headwind, fast enough for it to be exciting, with cold fingers and toes, let me taste a little bear meat, which is good to do once in a while.
"Riding in the cold builds toughness," my friend used to say.
The round trip was about 27 miles.
Anyone else dealing with frozen waterbottles yet?

the ferocity of a US senator

The Anchorage Daily News' Beth Bragg had this colorful lede for a story on Sen. Ted Stevens' hearing Thursday in Anchorage on coastal erosion.

Sen. Ted Stevens displayed the ferocity of an Alaska sea storm Thursday morning, pounding federal officials for not responding aggressively enough to coastal villages imperiled by erosion, flooding and other effects of global warming.

Here's the full story.

follow the money

The AK Climate Impact Assessment Commission met all day yesterday in Anchorage. A discussion of sorts came together in testimony from three separate invited speakers, including one of the commission members, who charged the Army Corps with funding ill-planned erosion control programs. The Army Corps sort of defended itself, but also explained that it simply didn't have the authority, which sounded like news to Sen. Gene Therriault, a studious state lawmaker.
The commission also heard some dramatic stuff about the impacts (real and potential) on salmon, as well as eloquent public testimony on how climate change was making impossible a way of life that's been developed over thousands of years in tune with the land and climate.
I wrote about the allegedly wasted money. Here's the story.
Sen. Ted Stevens stopped in and made the point that erosion is a larger problem now that villagers have fixed infrastructure like power plants and schools. Later in the day, he traveled to Shishmaref with Sen. Mary Landrieu. He's holding a hearing on coastal erosion today in Anchorage. Check back later for an update.

climate impact commission meeting today

The group set up last year by state lawmakers to tally the impacts of climate change in Alaska is holding its last public hearing today (Wednesday) in Anchorage.
The hearing is scheduled to last all day, with invited testimony running till 3:15 and public testimony coming after that. It's taking place at the legislative information office in Anchorage, but people elsewhere can listen in through their LIO or by calling (888) 295-4546.
Among those scheduled to speak is Fairbanks' own Luke Hopkins, who's on the Fairbanks borough Assembly and has been driving the push for a local response to climate change.
The full agenda is pasted below.
The Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Commission was supposed to do a final report with recommendations by January 10, but asked for and got an extension till February 29 -- making up for days lost last year to special sessions on oil and gas bills.

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Anchorage Legislative Information Office, Anchorage, Alaska

8:55am Dial teleconference bridge - (888) 295-4546

9:00am Chairman Samuels welcome / introductions / check teleconference

9:05am - 9:30am Dennis Nottingham, PND Engineers - Erosion Control in Alaska - Success and Failure

9:30am - 10:00am George Canelos, Federal Co-Chairman, Denali

Commission - Threatened Villages Relocation Issues

10:00am - 10:30am Lawson Brigham, Arctic Research Commission - Arctic

Marine Shipping Assessment for Alaska

(former 30-yr. Coast Guard officer, ice-breaker pilot)

10:30am - 11:15am A.O.G.A. presentation

11:15am - 11:45am Joseph David, Sr., Community Elder, Nunivak Island

11:45am - 1:00pm (lunch break)

1:00pm - 1:30pm Sue Mauger, Stream Ecologist, Cook Inletkeepers - Changes in Salmon Stream Habitat Due To Climate Warming

1:30pm - 2:30pm COL. Kevin Wilson, Commander, Alaska District, Army Corps. of Engineers;

Patricia Opheen, PE, Chief of Engineering Division, AK District, COE Jon Zufelt, Ph.D, PE, Army Cold Regions Research/Engineering Lab

2:30pm - 3:15pm Alaska Municipal League - Climate Warming Impacts on Alaskan Communities - Mayors Bruce Botelho, Juneau & Mark Begich, Anchorage, and Luke Hopkins, Presiding Officer, Fairbanks-North Star Borough Assembly Member

3:15pm - 3:30pm (afternoon break)

3:30pm - 5:00pm (open public testimony)

new posts, new blog

Welcome to northern flux, which takes over where the accidental naturalist left off.
I've made some big changes. I'm expanding the focus and hope to share some of the other things I care about while still being a resource for people wanting to learn about climate-related changes in Alaska, what's causing them, and what people are doing about them.
I'm a newspaper reporter, not an advocate. I just have a strong appreciation for the out-of-doors and a special interest in climate change.
All the old posts are still up. There are more links now, including some fun ones that have nothing at all to do with climate change. Feel free to join the discussion, and let me know if there's anything you'd like to see on the blog. I know there's people interested in this stuff, and I'd love to be a resource. You can reach me at stefan@billburg.com.