the news is methane

So the thing I forgot to mention yesterday was that methane levels were apparently flat for a decade or so. Here's how the NY Times put it.

Methane is produced naturally by swamps but also by activities including burning fossil fuels. The issue is important because climate experts have long worried that if Arctic permafrost thaws, the process would release potentially catastrophic amounts of methane into the atmosphere. . . .

Read the whole thing here. (It's short.)

CO2, methane up

This is really big news. And makes it hard to believe Bush's comments last week in light of the implied urgency behind these findings. Anyway, NOAA just put out new numbers on greenhouse gases -- they're going up -- and speculated that methane released from arctic soils might finally be showing up as a major climate feedback (warmer air thaws the soil, releasing methane and leading to more warming). Here's the news release I just got. Look for news stories soon, I'm sure.

Carbon Dioxide, Methane Rise Sharply in 2007

Last year alone global levels of
atmospheric carbon dioxide, the primary driver of
global climate change, increased by 0.6 percent,
or 19 billion tons. Additionally methane rose by
27 million tons after nearly a decade with little
or no increase. NOAA scientists released these
and other preliminary findings today as part of
an annual update to the agency’s greenhouse gas
index, which tracks data from 60 sites around the world.

The burning of coal, oil, and gas, known
as fossil fuels, is the primary source of
increasing carbon dioxide emissions. Earth's
oceans, vegetation, and soils soak up half of
these emissions. The rest stays in the air for
centuries or longer. Twenty percent of the 2007
fossil fuel emissions of carbon dioxide are
expected to remain in the atmosphere for
thousands of years, according to the latest
scientific assessment by the International Panel on Climate Change.

Viewed another way, last year’s carbon
dioxide increase means 2.4 molecules of the gas
were added to every million molecules of air,
boosting the global concentration to nearly 385
parts per million (ppm). Pre-industrial carbon
dioxide levels hovered around 280 ppm until 1850.
Human activities pushed those levels up to 380 ppm by early 2006.
The rate of increase in carbon dioxide
concentrations accelerated over recent decades
along with fossil fuel emissions. Since 2000,
annual increases of two ppm or more have been
common, compared with 1.5 ppm per year in the
1980s and less than one ppm per year during the 1960s.

Methane levels rose last year for the
first time since 1998. Methane is 25 times more
potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide,
but there’s far less of it in the
atmosphere—about 1,800 parts per billion. When
related climate affects are taken into account,
methane’s overall climate impact is nearly half that of carbon dioxide.
Rapidly growing industrialization in Asia
and rising wetland emissions in the Arctic and
tropics are the most likely causes of the recent
methane increase, said scientist Ed Dlugokencky
from NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory.

”We’re on the lookout for the first sign
of a methane release from thawing Arctic
permafrost,” said Dlugokencky. “It’s too soon to
tell whether last year’s spike in emissions
includes the start of such a trend.”
Permafrost, or permanently frozen ground,
contains vast stores of carbon. Scientists are
concerned that as the Arctic continues to warm
and permafrost thaws, carbon could seep into the
atmosphere in the form of methane, possibly
fueling a cycle of carbon release and temperature rise.

NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic
security and national safety through the
prediction and research of weather and
climate-related events and information service
delivery for transportation, and by providing
environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal
and marine resources. Through the emerging Global
Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA
is working with its federal partners, more than
70 countries and the European Commission to
develop a global monitoring network that is as
integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.

On the Web:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi

juneau learns to conserve

The halls of the Capitol are dark. Already cool homes are getting cooler. People are line-drying their clothes and using propane lamps. If you haven't heard, an avalanche took out the transmission line to Juneau's main source of power -- a hydroelectric project -- and electricity rates are expected to quintuple for the next few months as the utility shifts to diesel generators. There's talk of businesses not making it, non-profits closing their doors, etc. The city is considering using its entire emergency reserve to avoid laying off employees, among other things.
If your electric bill was 100 bucks a month, now it's 500. The question seems to be, How do I cut my consumption to one-fifth what it was, and people are thinking, suddenly, about the electricity that goes into a hot shower or hot tea.
I've got lots of outdoors pics to put up, and will soon.
There's also some climate news -- Gov. Palin's subcabinet has chosen a bunch of people to serve on advisory and technical workgroups, including many from Fairbanks and many from environmental groups. Read more about it at the state climate change site.

only in Alaska

An early morning avalanche on Wednesday took out Juneau's main source of power, forcing a switch from hydropower to diesel and likely causing electricity rates to quadruple. Quadruple! The quotes in the paper today talked about how the capital would now be like the rural, roadless villages we hear about where electricity costs 50 cents a kwh and up. Apparently the transmission line goes over some rugged country. The avalanche was reported to be a mile and a half wide. Yikes.
And that was yesterday, before a giant snowstorm dumped about a foot of fresh pow on the city and even more at the ski area. When you factor in the slope of the hill and the knee bend of a tele turn, the snow was up to my waist, plowing into my goggles like in a ski mag cover shot. Amazing stuff, and probably the biggest single snowstorm of the year.

feds come to Fairbanks

Folks from NASA, NOAA, and the DOE are in Fairbanks studying aerosols and other stuff related to climate change. Here's a story by a fellow News-Miner reporter. Pic by John Wagner.

new camera

Finally. A new camera.

polar bears and power plants

Here's the story I wrote for today about the Alaska Legislature asking for money to put on a big conference and PR campaign in opposition of the ESA listing of the polar bear. They're not the only ones worried about a listing leading to all kinds of carbon regulation -- US Sen. Ted Stevens has also been making the case, among others. It's unclear whether that would actually happen. The Fish and Wildlife guy I talked to said the listing itself would not. The Service is simply not set up to regulate carbon emissions. But he did say the EPA could consult with the FWS in shaping its regulation, and, more importantly, the reach of a listing will probably be determined by the courts (presumably after someone sues that a coal-fired power plant is harming an endangered species, sort of like Kivalina recently sued oil companies for causing coastal erosion).

JUNEAU — State lawmakers are planning to spend $2 million on a national conference and public relations campaign about the potential impacts of listing polar bears under the Endangered Species Act.

The money was requested by Senate President Lyda Green, R-Wasilla, and House Speaker John Harris, R-Valdez, and is included in the state’s capital budget.

Eddy Grasser, a legislative staffer working for Green and Harris, said one goal is to sort out fact from fiction in the science behind the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s proposal to list the animal as threatened under the act.

He said he’s done a lot of research on the issue and found there’s a “diversity of opinion” over the human role in climate change — the driving factor behind the agency’s proposal to list the bears.

Another goal is to educate people about the impacts a listing would have.

“The state’s got a huge vested interest in the outcome of that listing as far as the economics of development projects,” he said Thursday.

The listing is based on the idea that greenhouse gas emissions are threatening bears, he said, so anything that emits greenhouse gases could be affected.

Bruce Woods, a spokesman for the Fish and Wildlife Service, questioned that claim in an interview Thursday.

He said the Endangered Species Act requires a direct link between cause and effect.

“There has to be a direct, scientific line between your gas pipe and this dead bear,” he said. “And frankly, climate science and pollution science aren’t developed to the point to make that kind of connection.”

A listing could lead to additional habitat protections, he added, but that wouldn’t stop development projects outright.

The point of the act isn’t to block projects but to allow them to proceed in a way that minimizes environmental impacts, he said.

Woods also cautioned that the ultimate impact of a listing would likely be decided in the courts.

The Fish and Wildlife Service first proposed listing the bears in early 2007. A subsequent scientific review by the U.S. Geological Survey found that future reductions in sea ice could lead to the loss of two-thirds of the world’s polar bears within 50 years.

A decision on the proposal has not yet been announced.

The legislative budget request calls for an “academic based effort” leading to a national conference and various communications work, including a “significant national education campaign,” according to a supporting document.

“The project will include research methodologies such as computer modeling and perceived consensus,” it reads. “Research shall be non-biased to specific groups’ opinion and shall present scientifically fact based outcomes.”

“It’s economic development, and true and accurate data,” said Ginger Blaisdell, a staff member to Green.

The money would go to the Legislative Council, a joint legislative committee, and the project would go to bid through a request for proposals, according to Grasser.

The request follows two legislative resolutions approved last year in the House and Senate. Those documents also pointed to potential impacts on development and claimed the Fish and Wildlife Service was ignoring scientific data questioning the listing.

Pamela A. Miller, arctic coordinator for the Fairbanks-based Northern Alaska Environmental Center, criticized lawmakers for requesting the funding.

“If education is really needed, why aren’t we supporting the university and the Department of Fish and Game?” she said.

outside

It's snowing like mad. Again. Yesterday, when I didn't get to ski, there was a foot of fresh powder in the mountains. Today it's thick, wet flakes.
Here's a pic from last weekend, when a few of us skied from the ski area, up Mt. Troy, over the ridges above the Dan Moller cabin, and across to Mt. Jumbo, the biggest mountain on Douglas Island. Amazing stuff. Thanks to Toby for the pic.

the future of renewable energy

I got an excited phone call yesterday from Deborah Williams, head of the climate group Alaska Conservation Solutions, about goings on in D.C. It had to do with a new attempt in the Senate to restore the renewable energy production tax credits, which give a tax break of a few pennies per kilowatt hour to producers of renewable energy. The way I understand it, the credits get extended every few years, factories crank out wind turbines, utilities put 'em up, and then the credits near their sunset date and everything shuts down until they're extended again. This time around, the House has already extended the credits and the Senate hasn't.
The new attempt in the Senate, according to Grist, is more palatable to some lawmakers because it doesn't fund the credits by taking away tax breaks to oil companies, as previous efforts would have.
So, while AK Sens. Lisa Murkowski and Ted Stevens have turned down two recent efforts to extend the credits, they've both signed on as co-sponsors of this new effort, according to Williams. And that's a big deal.
As for the credits themselves, Williams described them as "vitally important" to the future of renewable energy in Alaska. "The only way that we will get companies to invest in renewable energy in Alaska is if they have these renewable energy production tax credits," she said.
If that's true, the big push here in Juneau to create a state renewable energy fund is small potatoes compared to what's happening in D.C. Projects replacing high-cost diesel in rural areas might pencil out anyway -- especially with a state grant -- but my understanding is that these federal tax credits would sure help.
In other news, Gov. Palin signed the supplemental budget yesterday containing the $300 million for weatherization and energy efficiency programs in the state. That's big. And at least some money will be available for people of any income level.

calendar of events

Here's a short list of events in Fairbanks and beyond related to climate change. Some are public, some aren't. If you want me to add something, e-mail me at stefan@billburg.com.

Thursday, April 17
-Bjorn Lomborg, author of "Cool It", talk at Davis Concert Hall, UAF
7 p.m. Fairbanks

grayling

Fish in the news! The NY Times has a story about grayling in Montana suffering from warming stream water. Up here, these are beautiful fish, and dumb enough, or naive enough to humans, that you can catch them with dental floss, a hook, and a bit of tin foil -- or so I hear. I've caught them with lures, but I won't tell you which ones.
Oh, and Deborah Williams, head of Alaska Conservation Solutions, had a column in the ADN calling for passage of the renewable energy bill, HB 152, and SB 289, which helps implement the weatherization and energy efficiency programs already funded in a budget bill.
On another note, it looks increasingly like the Legislature isn't going to do anything this year with the recommendations of the AK Climate Impact Assessment Commission. The session's only 90 days, and there are less than two weeks left.