more on newtok

Former Anchorage Daily News reporter Doug O'Harra has this post on the NY Times' recent story on Newtok. O'Harra challenges the claim of widespread permafrost thawing, as well as the claim that Newtok's problem is linked to climate change. He has good links to the Department of Commerce's pages on the village.
On another note, a friend recently offered the following on the terminology of permafrost state changes: "Permafrost does NOT melt! Just like a steak does not melt when you take it out of the freezer - it THAWS."

costs in the billions

If you were holding a gathering of tropical island nations and arctic regions -- those impacted first by climate change -- where would you hold it?
Right, not in the arctic.
Here's a short story on one such meeting, at which University of Alaska Anchorage prof Peter Larsen said up to $10 billion of public infrastructure was at risk because of climate change.
(Thanks to R.A. Dillon for finding the story.)
To see a report Larsen did on the issue, go to my reading library and look under the new stuff.

chapin on alaska's forests

Here's the story I wrote for today on the boreal forest conference at UAF and remarks by Terry Chapin, an ecology prof at the Institute of Arctic Biology and well-respected researcher.

Global climate change is driving an increase in wildfires, enabling widespread insect outbreaks, and otherwise threatening Alaska’s forests, a University of Alaska Fairbanks professor said Wednesday at the start of a four-day international conference on boreal forests.

npr goes all out

Public radio has teamed up with National Geographic and started its blitzkrieg, round-the-world reporting on climate change -- "How we are shaping climate. How climate is shaping us."
Here's a link to their climate site.
The picture is Svante Arrhenius, who first nailed down the idea of greenhouse gas warming back in 1896.

the silver cloud

I've heard Buck Sharpton talk now three times in two days. Sharpton is the university's vice chancellor for research in Fairbanks and helps set the research agenda at UAF. I interviewed him yesterday about the first meeting of Gov. Sarah Palin's subcabinet on climate change, on which he sits, then heard him give a speech to the Fairbanks chamber of commerce about university research. This morning he welcomed scientists to the big boreal forest conference happening at UAF. Each time, he's described climate change as a set of opportunities as well as challenges. Twice he mentioned how the decrease in ice pack could open a northern shipping route between Europe and Asia. "Barrow might turn out to be a very important activity point," he told me.
This morning, he sort of deflated his own balloon. He said he usually thought of opportunities and challenges, but when it came to the boreal forest, pretty much just saw challenges -- wildfires, insects, diseases.
"If there's a silver lining in this cloud," he said, "I would certainly like to hear it."

subcabinet teams up with ua

Here's the story I wrote for today about the first meeting of Gov. Sarah Palin's subcabinet on climate change.

A new group set up by Gov. Sarah Palin to address climate change is forging a relationship with the University of Alaska to help the state place infrastructure, manage fish and game, and otherwise understand and deal with expected changes.

vegetation and vegetables

I tried going to a coffeehouse talk tonight on the effects of climate change on tundra vegetation, but it was sunny outside and, while interesting, the talk reminded me of a school lecture. The woman giving the talk detailed ecological zones, explained why one would expect vegetation to change with warming temperatures, and said the growing season is starting about 10 days earlier than 50 years ago and ending at about the same time. She passed around bags of dried plant matter collected from tundra patches.
At home, I finished my own growing project that I've been working on for the last few days. I bought some baby plants on Saturday -- basil, peppers, cabbages, and so on -- and decided to build a greenhouse for them for reasons I don't quite understand. I guess I hope they'll grow better, but I also just liked building the thing. Last year I started growing from seeds and got quite a few tasty carrots, but didn't have much luck with the cukes or herbs.
Any gardening advice is much appreciated!

quotable

How long did Carl Pope take to think this one up?

Renewable energy sources like wind and solar are getting a lot of attention these days as a way to reduce the impact of energy use on the environment. But even enthusiastic supporters of alternative energy agree that the easiest way to cut carbon emissions and air pollution is to focus more on efficiency, less on pollution-free generation.

“Efficiency is the steak,” said Carl Pope, executive director of the Sierra Club. “Renewables are the sizzle.”

That's from a story today by the NY Times' Matthew Wald about energy efficiency. It's got some good stuff, including the idea that utilities can step in and invest in efficiency upgrades when consumers won't, then charge a small premium on the investment returns.
The Times also had companion stories about climate change and hurricane frequency and intensity -- the science is still out -- and making New Orleans hurricane-proof. The picture, from NOAA, is of engineers simulating a canal failure. I hope those folks are wearing Extratufs.

amazing juneau

Not that I don't love Fairbanks, but Juneau has mountains and salt water right next to each other, and a climate that leaves snow in the mountains even when it's warm in town. In May, you can paddle with humpback whales and sea lions or hike up a few thousand feet and get a tan snowboarding.

forest conference coming to fairbanks

A big conference on boreal forests starts Wednesday at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. It's the sixth one, and it focuses on climate impacts. The goal of the 4-day conference is to assess current knowledge and future impacts and start developing an international research framework to study impacts of climate change on boreal forests. The agenda is overwhelming and looks fairly technical to someone who hasn't taken a science class since high school. Here's a link to the conference site.

everything you ever wanted to know . . .

RealClimate, a well-respected climate blog written by a handful of climate scientists, recently had this thorough post with resources on climate change. Basically it's links to sites where beginners can get up to speed, intermediates can learn more, and pros can get what they need to debunk climate myths. It's probably thousands of pages in all, but it's organized nicely . . .

emissions drop, he said/she said

For some light reading, here's a brief from the NY Times' Andy Revkin on U.S. emissions.

Emissions of carbon dioxide from fuel burned in the United States dropped 1.3 percent in 2006 compared with an all-time peak reached the year before, according to preliminary data from the Energy Department. The United States remains the leading source of the carbon dioxide, the main emission linked to global warming. The White House quickly hailed the downturn, even in the face of economic growth, as evidence that President Bush’s policies for slowing growth in emissions without a mandatory cap were working. Some scientists and private environmental groups noted that the cause, according to the government, was mainly moderate weather and high prices for oil, natural gas and electricity. Over all, emissions were up 17.9 percent since 1990.

stevens' stand

Where does U.S. Sen. Ted Stevens (the Hulk) stand on climate change?
As a good journalist, I should probably just ask him, but for now it's fun to read the dozens of press releases coming in and try to figure it out. I realize now it's something like the old Saturday Night Live skits with Pat -- is it a man or a woman?
Stevens clearly acknowledges climate change and its various threats.
Here's from a written copy of his speech to the state legislature in March.

From Newtok to Shishmaref, Alaskans have felt the impact of global climate change. Many Alaskans living along our coasts, especially those on the West Coast or Arctic Ocean, are already forced to protect their lands from erosion and may have to relocate their homes and communities.

And here's from May 10, in Washington.

What many don’t realize is that the oceans may change as well, and if the predictions are accurate, these changes could have economic consequences. Warm ocean temperatures are causing widespread coral bleaching in the Caribbean. In Alaska, some species are moving north. There is concern on how these changes will affect our fisheries…. We need to make sure the federal agencies have their resources in the right places to study ocean acidification and climate change.

Stevens has also been pushing a number of initiatives that would reduce emissions. He sponsored a bill raising fuel economy standards for cars to 40 miles per gallon in 10 years, then worked out a compromise solution based on a Democratic bill with more relaxed standards. He co-sponsored legislation aimed at speeding the development of wind, solar, wave, geothermal, and biofuel technologies, and introduced legislation that would double the energy efficiency of conventional light bulbs within six years.
But if the senator has green motivations behind his green legislation, he doesn't mention them. Mostly he talks about reducing consumption of fuels, either because they're expensive or because we often have to buy them from countries we don't like, rather than reducing emissions from fossil fuels.
Here's this rationale for the light bulb legislation.

Our bills will ensure we take advantage of new technologies to save energy, save consumers money on their electricity bills, and promote American ingenuity.

And this for increasing fuel economy standards.

The September 11 terrorist attacks and the current struggles in the Middle East have brought into focus the need to reduce our dependence on foreign oil.

The same press release notes that energy efficiency legislation Stevens is co-sponsoring would reduce CO2 emissions by about 7 percent by 2025, but it doesn't mention climate change.
All of which leaves one wondering. Does Stevens believe humans are causing climate change?
There's a hint that he does, from his talk to the Legislature.

Alaskans have already begun focusing on how to better utilize our resources to protect our environment. The Cold Climate Housing Research Center in Fairbanks is at the forefront of developing technologies for Arctic climates.

But then, why not just come out and say it?
Stevens' Web site makes a stronger link and suggests his legislative efforts are motivated by concerns over climate change, but also, almost comically, continues the puzzle.

There is consensus that carbon dioxide emissions influence changes in climate. However, there is no agreement on how much of an influence these emissions carry.

The picture is of Stevens feeding apples to a hippopotamus at the National Zoo.

newtok

This village near Alaska's west coast was recently described to me as the lesser-known but more dramatic and urgent poster-village of climate change. The Army Corps gave it a few years before erosion and melting forced people to move, but Deborah Williams said the village could lose its water treatment plant and barge dock this summer, without which it's hard to imagine the village could function.
It's hard for me to imagine what it's like there now. The state's community database includes this description of infrastructure.

Water is pumped from a lake into a water treatment plant, then hauled from a storage tank. In winter, melted ice is used when water in the storage tank runs dry or freezes. Households are not plumbed, and honeybuckets are used. A washeteria is available.

And, just today, the NY Times' William Yardley did a moving story about the village and its changes challenges -- not just climate-related, but those surely faced by any number of Native villages here in the state.

On a recent afternoon, Ms. Tommy, 84, watched a DVD of “The Day After” while her 17-year-old granddaughter, Nicole, a high school dropout, sat across the room with Eminem’s “Encore” thumping in her headphones. Nicole mused about moving to Anchorage, although she has never been there.

Many men still travel with the seasons to hunt and fish. Some will take boats into Bristol Bay this summer to catch salmon alongside commercial fishermen from out of state. But the waterproof jacket sewn from seal gut that Stanley Tom once wore is now stuffed inside a display case at Newtok School next to other relics.

Now Mr. Tom puts on a puffy parka to walk the few hundred feet he travels to work. He checks his e-mail messages to see if there is news from the corps or from Senator Stevens while his brother, Nick, sketches out a budget proposal for a nonprofit corporation to help manage the relocation, presuming the money arrives.

Yardley also describes how there's really no public policy for village relocations yet, even though villages are moving now. It's worth reading the whole story, so click here. The pic is by Charles Mason.

excuses

Please excuse the delay here. It's been two weeks, I know. For the first, I was thoroughly consumed by the last week of the Alaska Legislature's regular session, which turned into a sneaky, fairly exciting who-done-it, then a nail-biter, then a soft landing, although it's still unclear who really won the battle at the end. For the second week, I was traveling by ferry and truck from Juneau back up to Fairbanks, then settling in here, where it really feels like summer.
Excuses, I know, but I'm back now.

barrow lands a whale

This picture, courtesy of Luciana Whitaker, ran on the front page of the Anchorage Daily News on Friday. Barrow has a quota of 22 whales a year, according to info with the pics. This 36-foot male was the village's 7th of the year.

alaska greenhouse gas inventory

The Department of Environmental Conservation released a commissioned study of statewide emissions a while ago, but it didn't get a whole lot of attention. You can find the Alaska Greenhouse Gas Inventory in my reading library. I can't say I've read the 96 pages yet, but will update when I do.

climate sub-cabinet comes together

Gov. Sarah Palin's sub-cabinet on climate change is now complete. The University of Alaska picked its vice chancellor for research in Fairbanks, Buck Sharpton, as its representative to the new group, which also includes the commissioners of the departments of environmental conservation, natural resources, fish and game, commerce, and transportation (or their designees) and Palin's representative in Washington, DC.
DEC Commissioner Larry Hartig will lead the group.
Sharpton came to the University of Alaska Fairbanks in 1998 as faculty at the Geophysical Institute and the Department of Geology and Physics. He was named to his current position last May, and now helps the chancellor set UAF's research agenda. He oversees the Geophysical Institute, the International Arctic Research Center, the Institute of Arctic Biology, and other research programs. Click here for a fuller bio.
The sub-cabinet's first meeting is scheduled for May 22.

incredibly shrinking ice

Here's another story, made in Alaska by the Anchorage Daily News' George Bryson, about recent research suggesting the Arctic ice cap is melting faster than scientists thought.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, widely regarded as the gold standard for such projections, had estimated that summer sea ice in the Arctic probably declined at a rate of 2.5 percent a decade from 1953 to 2006. At that rate, the IPCC said, the summer ice cap would disappear sometime between 2050 and next century.

That estimate reflected the average of 18 separate IPCC climate scenarios, the most pessimistic of which placed the rate of ice shrinkage at 5.4 percent a decade.

But newly available data, "blending early aircraft and ship reports with more recent satellite measurements," show that the September ice actually declined at a rate of about 7.8 percent per decade from 1953 to 2006, the ice data center reported in a press statement.

"Because of this disparity, the shrinking of summertime ice is about 30 years ahead of the climate model projections," said NSIDC scientist and co-author Ted Scambos.

That means the summer ice cap could disappear earlier than 2050. If it does, scientists say, the Earth will begin warming much more rapidly -- as the Arctic Ocean begins to soak up all of the sun's rays without the protective shield of the ice cap to bounce them back into space.

In Alaska, polar bears would lose the summer ice floes they depend upon to hunt for seals. Instead, they'd have to find food on the mainland. But that might be the least of the Earth's ills. If a rapidly warming climate causes major portions of Greenland or Antarctica to melt, the rising sea level would drown low-lying seaports and communities all around the world. Portions of Manhattan and the coast of Florida would disappear.

Click here for the full story.

fishing for kings near juneau

I've been fishing a few times with my friend Mark, pictured here, but we haven't caught anything yet.

juneau climate report

The city and borough of Juneau last month put out an 86-page report titled "Climate Change: Predicted Impacts on Juneau," drafted by the city's scientific panel on climate change.
Among the projected impacts:
-Air temps increasing about 10 degrees by the end of the century
-Shrubs and trees taking over alpine and tundra areas
-A decrease in growth and survival of salmon
According to the report, Juneau Mayor Bruce Botelho, recognizing the "substantial concerns" of climate change, asked the University of Alaska to put together a scientific panel to gather information on present and future impacts on Juneau; host a public forum on the issue; and make recommendations to the Assembly, including involvement in regional or national initiatives.
This is something like what the state is doing with its Climate Impact Assessment Commission, except that the state's panel is not heavy on scientists and is not invited to recommend emissions reductions.
I'll post the report as soon as I figure out how. In the meantime, you can find it on Juneau's Web site.

carbon reporting proposal denied

Scooped by my own paper! Here's a good story by my colleague on a failed request by green groups that the state's Department of Environmental Conservation require big emitters to report how much they're emitting.

. . . The department did not disagree with the premise of the petition, but argued that adopting regulations now would interfere with plans already in place to inventory and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

“The timing of your petition, arriving before we have a fully developed plan, would have us making decisions we simply are not yet prepared to make,” Department of Environmental Conservation Commissioner Larry Hartig wrote in a letter to Mike Frank, senior staff attorney with Trustees for Alaska.

In the letter, Hartig said the department agrees that warming trends in the poles are “alarming,” that “there is a need for government leadership” to instigating change and that “an inventory of greenhouse gas emissions is among the logical first steps” in addressing the human causes of climate change.

However, the letter argues that the department needs to continue working with other states to develop more reliable and compatible methods for calculating greenhouse gas emissions.

coal, carbon, and fertilizer

This one's still sort of a mystery to me, but here goes. The state House recently passed a bill allowing the state-owned railroad to subsidize, in the form of issuing bonds, a multi-part project involving a rail link, a private coal-gasification plant, and, I think, coal barges. An existing plant, Agrium, now makes fertilizer on the Kenai Peninsula using natural gas. But because gas supplies from nearby Cook Inlet are dwindling, the company wants to make gas feed stock from coal. The gasification project could also produce electricity for the regional power grid, according to the bill, and provide carbon dioxide to pump into Cook Inlet oil fields to increase production.
When the bill got to the floor, Rep. Les Gara, a Democrat from Anchorage and somewhat of a rabble-rouser, proposed an amendment that would allow the bonds to be issued only if the new plant could be run with the same or less carbon emissions, per megawatt, as a nearby natural gas-fired plant. The amendment failed, with only minority Democrats supporting it.
I haven't studied the arguments, but the idea seemed like something of a stretch, because the state doesn't currently regulate greenhouse gas emissions.
Here's an AP story on it.

arctic ice melt

The ice pack floating on the Arctic Ocean is melting faster than people thought before, according to a study reviewed by the NY Times' Andrew Revkin. The old estimate was that the ocean could be ice-free sometime between 2050 and the early 22nd century; the new estimate isn't really clear from the story. Read the whole thing here. Also check out Doug O'Harra's explanation.